A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
